由于缺乏支撑投资者信心的新鲜数据和消息，美元在亚洲市场继续在小范围内保持紧缩的态势。欧元对美元，在1.5737 – 1.5754范围内维持稳定，而美元对日元，在一连串强劲的市场数据的支持下，从107.60 小幅回落至107.30。88.950。日元驱动的利差交易没有什么市场变化，新土耳其里拉对日元的利差交易成交于88.950左右。国家原油价格跟随黄金价格，小幅上扬，至于$124.98bll & $931.50oz。美国股市急转直下，也带动了亚洲指数和欧洲期货市场的大幅下跌行情。波动率指数平静的爬升至24.23，然而外汇市场的行情似乎在暗示，汇率市场在稳步放开。上周的重要市场数据新鲜出炉，国际油价似乎成为了主导美元定价的重要因素。

在日本，经济数据的情况比人们预期的要好很多。六月份的商品零增长率为0.0%，相比于预期的 -0.5% (年增长率为0.3%，相比于预期的0.2%)。住房产业的调查数据也比预期中要好，但前景依然非常迷茫。住房产业的调查数据表明，人们六月份对于不动产的消费下跌了-1.8% ，相比于预期的 -2.8% 。然而，被调查者（内阁调查）当中，表明将要削减外出用餐和娱乐休闲消费支出的人数，要大大超过计划增加消费支出的人数。

在新西兰，六月份的建筑许可批准的下降比预期中的要更低一点，下降了20.1，相比于预期的42.3%。新西兰元对美元，在消息发布之后，有小幅的增长，至于0.7457，然而，利好消息的影响时间十分有限，我们并不看好今后的走势。

在欧洲市场，投资者们都在关注英国的一系列经济数据的新鲜出炉。CBI分销贸易调查在过去的几个月当中，都保持稳定的态势，但仍然缺乏继续前进的需求拉动力。夏季消费的统计数据非常不错，然而随着消费者对于通货膨胀、失业的危险、房价下跌等因素的压力，未来的消费能力实在不容乐观。五月份，抵押贷款购置新房的数量跌破了1990年代的最低点，而且在六月份还将继续下跌。根据英国银行家协会的数据报告，下周这个数据还将下跌。基础数据的弱势因为被通胀的因素有所缓解，我们预期英镑的走势会稍微走低。

欧元对美元 –市场都在关注现在的 1.5628和 1.5610点位。如果下降通道展开，将会建成双底结构，在1.5460的下降通道中，下一个目标就是1.5312，也有可能继续下降至1.5182。多方观点认为，1.5798 和1.5952 是1.6040之前的最主要的阻力点。如果没有能力上冲至1.6380，大势将继续上扬至1.6100，1.6150 和 1.6220。

美元对日元 – 市场在热切关注 108.60点位。 通道打开之后将继续走向110.00, 111.60 和112.00。空方观点认为, 第一个支撑点位于105.97，104.59之后的106.58.全部击破之后，将会深陷熊市的行情。

英镑对美元 – 空方观点认为，1.9859 和1.9814-17是 1.9754 前位的第一个支撑点。 如果被击破，将重置支撑点为1.9649 和 1.9585，将承受巨大压力。多方观点认为, 第一个阻力区域位于主要阻力位（即 2.0162 和 2.0183-2.0200）之前的1.9978-2.0005 和2.0078。
 
货币流向分析

AUDUSD
R 3: 0.9794
R 2: 0.9675
R 1: 0.9637
CURRENT: 0.9580
S 1: 0.9527
S 2: 0.9477
S 3: 0.9451

EURJPY
R 3: 171.81
R 2: 171.07
R 1: 169.97
CURRENT: 169.41
S 1: 167.50
S 2: 166.01
S 3: 165.33

USDSGD
R 3: 1.3826
R 2: 1.3717
R 1: 1.3661
CURRENT: 1.3626
S 1: 1.3567
S 2: 1.3501
S 3: 1.3448

 
Market Brief

The Usd was constricted to a tight range in the Asian session, as a lack of new data kept traders on the sideline. The EurUsd traded between 1.5737 – 1.5754, while the UsdJpy trended slightly lower from 107.60 to 107.30, on a string of stronger figures. The Jpy fueled carry trades were unchanged, with the king of carry,the TryJpy, trading around 88.950. Oil followed gold slightly higher to $124.98bll & $931.50oz. The US stock markets were sharply lower ( as financial shares led the DJIA and S&P -2.11% and -1.85% respectively), pushing down Asian indexes and European futures. The FDIC's seizure of two smaller failed banks, over the weekend weighed on sentiment and cast cloud over the health of the US's consumer banking sector. Quietly, the VIX has crept back up to 24.23, but FX 1 month implied vols are steadily easing. Oil prices seem to be the critical driver in Usd pricing, ahead of the late week's data releases.

In Japan, the economic data came out stronger than expected. Retail Sales for June printed at 0.0% vs. -0.5% exp m/m (0.3% vs. -0.2% exp y/y). Household Survey was also stronger than the expectations, but the outlook is gloomy: Household Survey shows that real spending in June fell -1.8% vs. -2.8% exp. However, the number of respondents (in the Cabinet office survey), which indicated that they would cut back on dining out and entertaining spending, significantly exceed those who were looking to increase spending. BoJ's Nishimura spoke with the media and said that the BoJ's policy was 'wide open' between increasing upside inflation and downside growth risks.

In New Zealand, Building permits for June fell less than expected to -20.1 vs. -42.3% prior reading. While the NzdUsd received a slight boost on the release trading up to 0.7457, we don't expect the gains to hold.

Market will be watching a string of UK data in European session. The CBI Distributive Trades Survey has stabilized in the past couple of months, but it still highlights weak demand. Spending on summer clearance sales are reported to have been strong, but with consumers coming under pressure from rising inflation, the threat of unemployment and the fall of housing prices, we don't expect spending to stay buoyant. The number of mortgage approvals for new house purchase fell below their early 1990s lows in May and are expected to fall further in June. Supported by the British Bankers Association, figures already released are showing a fall last week. While the weak fundamental data will be tempered by inflation concerns, we are expecting some weakness in Gbp today on the negative data.

German regional CPI numbers will released throughout the day, along with the final national figure. With consensus at 3.1% we expect headline CPI to surprise to the upside.
 
G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD
 NOK 0.15 
 CAD 0.10 
 AUD 0.05 
 EUR 0.01 
 DKK -0.01 
 GBP -0.02 
 CHF -0.04 
 SEK -0.10 
 JPY -0.13 
 NZD -0.33 

 
Global Indexes Current Level % Change
 
Nikkei 225 Index 13,159.45 - 1.45
Hang Seng Index 22,209.42 - 2.10
Shanghai Index 2,850.31 - 1.81
FTSE futures 5,312.50 - 0.79
DAX futures 6,325.00 - 1.00
SMI Futures 6,976.00 - 0.67
DJIA futures 11,132.00 - 0.03

 
World Markets Current Level % Change
 
Gold 931.65 + 0.76
Silver 17.59 + 0.43
VIX 24.23 + 5.76
Crude wti 125.22 + 0.39
USD Index 72.69 + 0.05

 
Todays Calender Estimates Previous Country / GMT
 
M4 Money Supply (Jun Final) -- (+11.5%)p UK / 8.30
Consumer Credit (Jun) +£1.0bn +£1.4bn UK / 8.30
BoE Mortgage Approvals (Jun) 37K 42K UK / 8.30
German Regional CPI -- -- GE / 9.00
CBI Distributive Trades Report (Jul) -15 -9 UK / 10.00
Case-Shiller 20-City House Price Index (May) -16.0% -15.3% US / 13.00
Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Jul) 50 50.4 US / 14.00
 
Currency Tech

AUDUSD
R 3: 0.9794
R 2: 0.9675
R 1: 0.9637
CURRENT: 0.9580
S 1: 0.9527
S 2: 0.9477
S 3: 0.9451

EURJPY
R 3: 171.81
R 2: 171.07
R 1: 169.97
CURRENT: 169.41
S 1: 167.50
S 2: 166.01
S 3: 165.33

USDSGD
R 3: 1.3826
R 2: 1.3717
R 1: 1.3661
CURRENT: 1.3626
S 1: 1.3567
S 2: 1.3501
S 3: 1.3448